Decarbonization: Belgian Industry Must Invest at Least 25 Billion Euros More by 2050

An Indicative and Non-Definitive Figure

This figure, although estimated from various studies, remains indicative and is neither official nor definitive. Whether decarbonization involves the electrification of processes, the use of low-carbon gas, CO2 capture, or a combination of these methods, it is certain that modernizing factories will require massive public support. Currently, governments are reacting urgently to appease industrial actors whose negotiating power is at its peak.

Industry Back in the Spotlight

Since the Covid crisis and the Russian gas crisis, major industrial players have managed to capture the attention of authorities by brandishing the threat of European competitiveness loss and relocations. Governments, including Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo and his regional colleagues, as well as public investment vehicles, have multiplied initiatives to show their goodwill: strategic participations, advantageous loans, subsidies, and capping electricity transport tariffs. In the case of ArcelorMittal Ghent, even privileged access to extended nuclear reactor production at reduced prices has been promised.

Necessary Investments: At Least One Billion Per Year

At least an additional billion euros must be invested annually on average, totaling around 25 billion by 2050, the target date set by Europe for carbon neutrality. This figure is an estimate and can vary based on numerous factors: energy prices, geopolitical context, technological progress, etc. Different studies have used various methods to estimate these costs, primarily based on the cost of reducing a ton of CO2.

A Peak of Investments to Anticipate

The Federal Planning Bureau, in its 2024 study on Belgian “Energy Outlooks,” highlights that the most significant investments will be needed at the beginning of the transition period. “By anticipating the continuous rise in prices in the emissions trading system from the start, companies avoid additional costs.” The chemical sector, particularly represented in Belgium, will make the largest share of these investments.

By cautiously estimating that at least 25 billion additional euros must be invested by industry by 2050, with a concentration of investments in the current decade, it appears risky to treat industrial transformation on a case-by-case basis.

How to Align Climate and Economic Imperatives?

Europe positions itself as the continent of clean techs, but it faces strong competition from Asian and American products and technologies. The economic imperative stems from the ecological imperative, with the development of solutions aimed at improving living conditions while drastically reducing the carbon footprint: electrolyzers, carbon capture and storage, building renovation solutions, digitization of construction and agriculture, etc. The challenge is to capture the added value by moving to implementation and local production of these technologies developed within the Union.

Text taken from a publication in L’Echo.